AIG

In the public world of insurance, there is no large carrier with an underwriting record worse than AIG's over the past decade.  It's been a dramatic mess. The History A very short reminder of the company's past might ring a few bells in the head of the (two) people who might read this.  I shouldn't… Continue reading AIG

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2018 H1 Letter

Copied and pasted below for my one follower (mom?).     Dear Partners, At certain times in the investing world there seems to be plentiful opportunities for unusual return with less-than-commensurate risk, and sometimes opportunities are few and risky.  So far in 2018 I have found myself in the plentiful camp more than expected as… Continue reading 2018 H1 Letter

Do Profit Margins Actually Matter?

  I often hear confusion among investors and business people equating high profit margins with high returns.  I understand the confusion.  Returns are all that matter in public markets.  Money begets money which begets money.  The faster that begetting happens, the better.  So when looking at businesses with strong historical returns, we might try to… Continue reading Do Profit Margins Actually Matter?

Naspers – Too Good to be True?

I don't understand the market value of Naspers.  I haven't for two years. Today, Naspers trades at a market value of $98.8 billion.  Naspers owns roughly 33% of Tencent. Today, Tencent has a market value of $419.5 billion.  Meaning that per the market's own pricing, Naspers owns $139.7 billion of Tencent.  Think on that for… Continue reading Naspers – Too Good to be True?

Macy’s – to $0?

Macy's is probably a dying business.  They epitomize the American big-box retailer that is under attack.  It's a business that is mostly undifferentiated from any other large department store, yet more depressingly has continued to remain so. Tery Lundgren has been the CEO here since 2004.  He has written books, received philanthropic honors from Carnegie,… Continue reading Macy’s – to $0?